Oman’s government, whose budget deficit is among the largest of all the sovereigns tracked by Fitch Ratings, will tap capital markets for a fourth straight year to plug a fiscal gap vulnerable to lower oil prices.
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Borrowing will cover 86% of the country’s $746 million (2.8 billion-rial) shortfall, with the remaining $106.6 million (400 million rials) to be drawn from the country’s reserves.
Oman has grown increasingly reliant on borrowing and fallen behind on efforts to reform its economy after oil prices collapsed in 2014. As a result, debt as a share of gross domestic product more than tripled to near 50%.
The focus on foreign borrowing last year was to “avoid crowding out the private sector in meeting its financing needs, as well as to enhance foreign currency cash flows and reserves,” the Finance Ministry said in the budget statement.
The remainder of the 2018 deficit was covered from reserves, it said.
The yield on Oman’s debt due 2028 has soared to about 7.5%, the most since the securities were sold in January 2018.
Raising funds in the future may get even more expensive after Oman’s sovereign rating was downgraded last month to one level below investment grade by Fitch, which warned that fiscal deficits are leading to a sharp deterioration in its sovereign and external balance sheets.
It expects government debt to continue climbing and reach 58% of GDP by 2020 from 48% in 2018.
S&P Global Ratings has Oman two levels into junk with a stable outlook, while Moody’s Investors Service puts it at the lowest investment grade with a negative view.
Here are other highlights from Oman’s 2019 budget:
Deficit is expected at $746 million (2.8 billion Omani rials), or 9% of GDP, versus $773 million (2.9 billion rials) in 2018 Revenue is projected at $2.69 billion (10.1 billion rials), down from a preliminary estimate of $2.7 billion (10.3 billion) rials at end-2018 Spending is set to reach $3.4 billion (12.9 billion rials), compared with around $3.5 billion (13.2 billion rials) last year The country’s external borrowing in 2018 accounted for 69% of its total funding, while domestic loans represented 17%.
The sultanate, which was expected to raise $7.5 billion from debt sales in 2018, ended up only borrowing $6.5 billion in January as higher oil prices helped boost revenue.
The country has raised $18 billion from the sale of dollar bonds since the start of 2016, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
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